Overall, 84% of likely Democratic primary voters back the Nakuru senator, with former MP Joe Wesonga (16%).
Michaels’ edge in Nakuru, a county he won by more than 20 points in the 2016 primaries, comes as polling from KTN and others in Nairobi and nationally shows him gaining ground. In Naivasha, he has edged up 4 points since the last KTN polls there in October. Wanjohi has slid 6 points in that time. Michael holds about even with his October support and Bitange has gained 5 points.
As in polling elsewhere, shifting preferences among other parties have changed the dynamic of the race: Michael has gained 13 points among liberal likely primary voters in Naivasha while Wesonga has dropped 7 points. Michael now holds a clear lead within that group: 39% back him, 21% Wesonga.